Le Havre vs Rennes – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Rennes (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Le Havre face Rennes.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 17 as Le Havre welcome Rennes to Stade Océane. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Le Havre at Stade Océane this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Rennes — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Rennes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Rennes have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Rennes are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Rennes, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Le Havre.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Rennes have won 3 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Le Havre trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Rennes trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 50% versus Rennes 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 32% | Rennes 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.08 xG and Rennes 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.707 / defence 0.885 | Rennes attack 1.201 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.346. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.707 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rennes have an above-average attack strength of 1.201 — the away xG of 1.43 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Le Havre games / 38 Rennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 27% | Draw 29% | Rennes 44%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Rennes 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rennes as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rennes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 50% | Rennes 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 27% | Draw 29% | Rennes 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Le Havre 1.08 / Rennes 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.707 / def 0.885 | Rennes attack 1.201 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Rennes (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Rennes xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Rennes kick off?
Le Havre vs Rennes is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 23 January 2027 at Stade Océane.
Where is Le Havre vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Rennes part of?
Le Havre vs Rennes is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 27% chance of winning, Rennes a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Le Havre and Rennes will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Rennes?
Record (6 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 3 | Rennes 3W.
What form are Le Havre and Rennes in?
Le Havre (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Rennes (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Le Havre's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Rennes's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Rennes's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
27%
3.70
29%
3.41
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.51
1.43
Rennes xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
6%
15.45
15%
6.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.6 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.43 for Rennes, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Le Havre come into this having played 38 games, going 7W 16D 15L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Rennes sit at 1.82 PPG from 38 outings (20W 9D 9L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Rennes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rennes carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Le Havre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Le Havre's home form reads 5W 9D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Rennes have taken 1.53 points per game from 19 outings (8W 5D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Le Havre are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 1.76 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rennes in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Early Season
Rennes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Rennes in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 7W 16D 15L in their last 38 games (0.97 PPG), while Rennes have gone 20W 9D 9L in their last 38 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Rennes away?
Rennes's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.26 PPG; Rennes away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2025, when Rennes won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Le Havre's record when hosting Rennes specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Le Havre
3
Draws
3
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Rennes?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 0, Rennes have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Rennes last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Rennes 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Rennes?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 53%, Rennes 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Le Havre) and 79% (Rennes). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 63% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rennes in 32%; Le Havre have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Rennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Le Havre's recent matches and 53% of Rennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Rennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 37% of Le Havre's matches and 79% of Rennes's.
Do Le Havre and Rennes tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Rennes in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.