Le Havre vs Rennes – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rennes (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Le Havre face Rennes.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 17 as Le Havre welcome Rennes to Stade Océane. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre at Stade Océane this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Rennes — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Rennes have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Rennes are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Rennes, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Le Havre.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Rennes have won 3 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Le Havre trading profile (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Rennes trading profile (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 54% versus Rennes 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 37% | Rennes 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.64 xG and Rennes 2.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.663 / defence 1.352 | Rennes attack 1.273 / defence 1.502. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.307. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.663 is below the league average — the 1.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rennes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.502 — this is suppressing Le Havre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Rennes have an above-average attack strength of 1.273 — the away xG of 2.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Le Havre games / 43 Rennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 27% | Draw 22% | Rennes 51%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 3.70 | Draw 4.55 | Rennes 1.96. Rennes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.89. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.89 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 2.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rennes as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rennes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 50% | Rennes 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 27% | Draw 22% | Rennes 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 73% | xG Le Havre 1.64 / Rennes 2.25 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.663 / def 1.352 | Rennes attack 1.273 / def 1.502 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Rennes (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
2.25
Rennes xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Rennes kick off?
Le Havre vs Rennes is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 January 2027 at Stade Océane.
Where is Le Havre vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Rennes part of?
Le Havre vs Rennes is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 27% chance of winning, Rennes a 51% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Le Havre and Rennes will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Rennes?
Record (6 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 3 | Rennes 3W.
What form are Le Havre and Rennes in?
Le Havre (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Rennes (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Le Havre's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Rennes's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Rennes's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 2.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
27%
3.67
22%
4.57
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Le Havre xG
Total xG
3.89
2.25
Rennes xG
3.67
27%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.70
Clean Sheet
11%
9.49
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
3%
34.83
10%
10.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Le Havre and 2.25 for Rennes, a combined total of 3.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Le Havre come into this having played 43 games, going 7W 16D 20L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rennes sit at 1.74 PPG from 43 outings (22W 9D 12L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rennes carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Le Havre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Le Havre's home form reads 5W 9D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Rennes have taken 1.32 points per game from 22 outings (8W 5D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rennes's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Le Havre are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 1.84 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rennes in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Rennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Rennes in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 7W 16D 20L in their last 43 games (0.86 PPG), while Rennes have gone 22W 9D 12L in their last 43 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Rennes away?
Rennes's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.09 PPG; Rennes away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2025, when Rennes won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Le Havre's record when hosting Rennes specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Le Havre
3
Draws
3
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Rennes?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 0, Rennes have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Rennes last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Rennes 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Rennes?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 59%, Rennes 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for Le Havre and 82% for Rennes. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 68% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Rennes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Le Havre's games and 54% of Rennes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Le Havre vs Rennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Le Havre's matches and 82% of Rennes's.
Do Le Havre and Rennes tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Rennes in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.