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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Le Havre and Rennes share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Le Havre and Rennes finished level at 2-2 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.82 xG and Rennes 1.49 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.93 / defence 1.22 against Rennes attack 1.01 / defence 1.23, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Le Havre 46% | Draw 23% | Rennes 32%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 60%, Rennes 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Le Havre's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Rennes's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Le Havre 0.98 PPG, Rennes 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights