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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Rennes run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Le Havre.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rennes beat Le Havre 1-5 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.09 xG and Rennes 2.04 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Rennes outscored their 2.04 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.80 / defence 1.37 against Rennes attack 1.05 / defence 0.93, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Le Havre 20% | Draw 21% | Rennes 59%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 53%, Rennes 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Le Havre's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Rennes's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Le Havre 0.95 PPG, Rennes 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rennes win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rennes (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights