Le Havre 1-5 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Le Havre face Paris Saint Germain.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Océane plays host to Le Havre versus Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Friday 30 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Le Havre have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Le Havre have posted 1W 4D 5L at Stade Océane — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Paris Saint Germain (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Paris Saint Germain have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Paris Saint Germain are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Paris Saint Germain, who have claimed 5 wins from 6 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Paris Saint Germain have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Paris Saint Germain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 52% versus Paris Saint Germain 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 36% | Paris Saint Germain 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 0.80 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.678 / defence 1.067 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.228 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.349. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.678 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Paris Saint Germain's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack strength of 1.228 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Le Havre games / 42 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 15% | Draw 26% | Paris Saint Germain 59%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 6.67 | Draw 3.85 | Paris Saint Germain 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 50% | Paris Saint Germain 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Friday 30 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 15% | Draw 26% | Paris Saint Germain 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG Le Havre 0.80 / Paris Saint Germain 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.678 / def 1.067 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.228 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Paris Saint Germain xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 30 October 2026 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Le Havre 1 - 5 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 15% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 59% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain?
Record (6 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 1 | Paris Saint Germain 5W.
What form are Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain in?
Le Havre (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Le Havre's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Paris Saint Germain's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. Flip it around — Paris Saint Germain's attack (1.23x) against Le Havre's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-2 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
15%
6.62
26%
3.84
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.57
1.77
Paris Saint Germain xG
6.62
15%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
17%
5.86
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
3%
38.84
26%
3.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 13.5 | 12.0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.77 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Le Havre come into this having played 42 games, going 7W 16D 19L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Paris Saint Germain sit at 2.21 PPG from 42 outings (29W 6D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.33 PPG clear of Le Havre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Le Havre's home form reads 5W 9D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris Saint Germain have taken 2.14 points per game from 21 outings (14W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Le Havre are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.14 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 7W 16D 19L in their last 42 games (0.88 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 29W 6D 7L in their last 42 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.14 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 30 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Paris Saint Germain go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won 1-5 on 30 Oct 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Paris Saint Germain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Le Havre
1
Draws
6
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain?
From 7 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 0, Paris Saint Germain have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 30 October 2026, when Le Havre 1-5 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 57%, Paris Saint Germain 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Le Havre) and 57% (Paris Saint Germain).
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain in 38%; Le Havre have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Paris Saint Germain?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Le Havre's recent matches and 52% of Paris Saint Germain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Le Havre's recent games and 57% of Paris Saint Germain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Paris Saint Germain run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Le Havre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Le Havre 1-5 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 0.80 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.77 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain outscored their 1.77 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.68 / defence 1.07 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.23 / defence 0.76, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 15% | Draw 26% | Paris Saint Germain 59%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 36%, Paris Saint Germain 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.