🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Le Havre at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Le Havre host Paris FC at Stade Océane in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 December 2025 at 16:15 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Le Havre's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stade Océane this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Paris FC — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Paris FC away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Le Havre at 1.10 PPG versus Paris FC's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Le Havre have won 0, Paris FC 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Le Havre in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Paris FC in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 58% versus Paris FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 56% | Paris FC 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.48 xG and Paris FC 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.785 / defence 1.040 | Paris FC attack 1.021 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.155. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 1.48 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Le Havre games / 14 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Le Havre 43% | Draw 26% | Paris FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Paris FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 80% | Paris FC 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights