🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Le Havre cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Nice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Le Havre beat Nice 3-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.39 xG and Nice 1.78 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Le Havre beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.89 / defence 1.28 against Nice attack 1.09 / defence 1.00, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Le Havre 30% | Draw 23% | Nice 47%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Le Havre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 64%, Nice 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Le Havre's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Nice's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Le Havre winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line. Nice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights