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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Marseille cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Le Havre.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Marseille beat Le Havre 1-3 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.33 xG and Marseille 1.90 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Marseille outscored their 1.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.80 / defence 1.45 against Marseille attack 0.93 / defence 1.15, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Le Havre 27% | Draw 22% | Marseille 51%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 54%, Marseille 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Le Havre's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Marseille's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Marseille (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights