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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stalemate at Le Havre's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Le Havre and Lyon finished level at 0-0 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.38 xG and Lyon 1.24 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Le Havre fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Lyon landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.87 / defence 0.86 against Lyon attack 1.24 / defence 1.12, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Le Havre 40% | Draw 26% | Lyon 34%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 51%, Lyon 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Le Havre's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Lyon's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights