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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Lille defy the odds to beat Le Havre 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lille beat Le Havre 0-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.52 xG and Lille 1.35 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Le Havre fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.92 / defence 1.04 against Lille attack 1.07 / defence 1.02, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Le Havre 41% | Draw 25% | Lille 34%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Lille win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 57%, Lille 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Le Havre's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Lille's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line. Lille (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights