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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Lens edge out Le Havre 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lens beat Le Havre 1-2 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.28 xG and Lens 1.54 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.90 / defence 1.26 against Lens attack 1.04 / defence 0.89, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Le Havre 32% | Draw 25% | Lens 43%, with Lens to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 63%, Lens 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Le Havre's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Lens's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Lens arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights