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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Lens edge out Le Havre 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lens beat Le Havre 1-2 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 0.74 xG and Lens 1.96 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.60 / defence 1.40 against Lens attack 1.08 / defence 0.79, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Le Havre 12% | Draw 23% | Lens 65%, with Lens to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 52%, Lens 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Le Havre's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Lens's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Lens arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lens (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights