Le Havre 0-1 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Angers at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Angers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Océane plays host to Le Havre versus Angers in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Le Havre's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre at Stade Océane this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Angers have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Angers's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Le Havre, 1.00 for Angers — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Angers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 41% versus Angers 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 50% | Angers 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 0.90 xG and Angers 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.703 / defence 1.334 | Angers attack 0.679 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.373. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Le Havre games / 12 Angers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 26% | Draw 30% | Angers 44%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Angers 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Angers at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Angers if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 40% | Angers 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 26% | Draw 30% | Angers 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Le Havre 0.90 / Angers 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.703 / def 1.334 | Angers attack 0.679 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Angers (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Angers xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Angers kick off?
Le Havre vs Angers kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Angers?
Le Havre 0 - 1 Angers.
Where is Le Havre vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Angers part of?
Le Havre vs Angers is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 26% chance of winning, Angers a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Le Havre and Angers will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Angers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Le Havre and Angers in?
Le Havre (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Angers (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Le Havre vs Angers?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.70) and Angers's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Angers's attack (0.68x) against Le Havre's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 46/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
26%
3.80
30%
3.34
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.14
1.24
Angers xG
3.80
26%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
8%
13.19
18%
5.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 14.6 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.24 for Angers, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Le Havre come into this having played 46 games, going 11W 11D 24L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Angers sit at 1.59 PPG from 46 outings (21W 10D 15L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Angers carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Le Havre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Le Havre's home form reads 8W 2D 13L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Angers have taken 1.22 points per game from 23 outings (7W 7D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Le Havre are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 1.43 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Angers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Angers in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 11W 11D 24L in their last 46 games (0.96 PPG), while Angers have gone 21W 10D 15L in their last 46 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Angers away?
Angers's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.13 PPG; Angers away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Angers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Le Havre
2
Draws
1
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Angers?
From 4 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 1, Angers have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Angers last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Angers 1-1 Le Havre.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 39%, Angers 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Le Havre) and 35% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 48% of games; Angers in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Angers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Le Havre's recent matches and 52% of Angers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Angers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Le Havre's recent games and 35% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Angers tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Angers in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Angers edge out Le Havre 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Le Havre 0-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 0.90 xG and Angers 1.24 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Le Havre fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.70 / defence 1.33 against Angers attack 0.68 / defence 0.85, drawn from 46/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 26% | Draw 30% | Angers 44%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 50%, Angers 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Angers's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Angers arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Angers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.