Le Havre 0-1 Angers – Result & Analysis

🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Angers at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Angers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stade Océane plays host to Le Havre versus Angers in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

Le Havre's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Le Havre at Stade Océane this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

Angers have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Angers's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Le Havre, 1.00 for Angers — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Trading Data

Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

Angers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 41% versus Angers 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 50% | Angers 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 0.90 xG and Angers 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.703 / defence 1.334 | Angers attack 0.679 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.373. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Le Havre games / 12 Angers games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Le Havre 26% | Draw 30% | Angers 44%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Angers 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Angers at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Angers if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 40% | Angers 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights