Estac Troyes 1-1 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lille at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estac Troyes vs Lille encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 38 as Estac Troyes welcome Lille to Stade de l'Aube. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 June 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Estac Troyes — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Estac Troyes's form when playing at home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 games at Stade de l'Aube this term (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lille have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Lille have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Lille's 2.00 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Estac Troyes's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Estac Troyes, 2 for Lille and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2023, ended 1–5 with Lille winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Estac Troyes in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Lille in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Estac Troyes 63% and Lille 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 52% | Lille 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 0.84 xG and Lille 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.769 / defence 1.153 | Lille attack 0.851 / defence 0.767. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.240. Estac Troyes's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lille's defence strength of 0.767 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 75 Estac Troyes games / 75 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 24% | Draw 33% | Lille 43%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 4.17 | Draw 3.03 | Lille 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lille at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Estac Troyes 60% | Lille 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jun 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 24% | Draw 33% | Lille 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Estac Troyes 0.84 / Lille 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.769 / def 1.153 | Lille attack 0.851 / def 0.767 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Lille (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Lille xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Lille kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Lille kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 3 June 2023 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Lille?
Estac Troyes 1 - 1 Lille.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Lille part of?
Estac Troyes vs Lille is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 24% chance of winning, Lille a 43% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Estac Troyes and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Lille?
Record (3 meetings): Estac Troyes 1W | Draws 0 | Lille 2W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Lille in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Lille (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Estac Troyes's attack rating (0.77) and Lille's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
24%
4.18
33%
3.06
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.06
1.22
Lille xG
4.18
24%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
7%
14.10
19%
5.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 15.6 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.22 for Lille, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estac Troyes come into this having played 75 games, going 13W 22D 40L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.61 PPG from 75 outings (33W 22D 20L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Lille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Estac Troyes's home form reads 6W 17D 14L across 37 games on their own ground, a 0.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.32 points per game from 37 outings (13W 10D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.49 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Lille in 61%.
Last 75 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Current Season
Lille
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Lille in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 13W 22D 40L in their last 75 games (0.81 PPG), while Lille have gone 33W 22D 20L in their last 75 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Lille away?
Lille's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 0.95 PPG; Lille away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estac Troyes and Lille runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Jan 2023, when Lille won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Lille specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
2
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Lille?
From 4 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 1, Lille have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 3 June 2023, when Estac Troyes 1-1 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 60%, Lille 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Estac Troyes) and 46% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes have failed to score in 27% of games; Lille in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Lille?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Estac Troyes's games and 57% of Lille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estac Troyes vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 46% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Lille tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Lille in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estac Troyes and Lille share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 38, as Estac Troyes and Lille drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 0.84 xG and Lille 1.22 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.77 / defence 1.15 against Lille attack 0.85 / defence 0.77, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 24% | Draw 33% | Lille 43%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 52%, Lille 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Lille's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.