Auxerre 1-3 Lens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lens at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Lens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps plays host to Auxerre versus Lens in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Saturday 3 June 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Auxerre (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Lens's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Lens have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Lens are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.70 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Auxerre, 1 for Lens and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2023, ended 0–1 with Lens winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Auxerre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Lens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 60% versus Lens 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 48% | Lens 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 0.84 xG and Lens 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.755 / defence 1.053 | Lens attack 1.158 / defence 0.781. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.240. Auxerre's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lens's defence strength of 0.781 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Auxerre games / 75 Lens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 19% | Draw 29% | Lens 52%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 5.26 | Draw 3.45 | Lens 1.92. Lens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lens at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lens if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Auxerre 50% | Lens 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Lens | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jun 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 19% | Draw 29% | Lens 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Auxerre 0.84 / Lens 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.755 / def 1.053 | Lens attack 1.158 / def 0.781 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Lens (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Lens xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Lens kick off?
Auxerre vs Lens kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 3 June 2023 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Lens?
Auxerre 1 - 3 Lens.
Where is Auxerre vs Lens being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Lens part of?
Auxerre vs Lens is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Lens?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 19% chance of winning, Lens a 52% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Lens?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Auxerre and Lens will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Lens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Lens?
Record (1 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 0 | Lens 1W.
What form are Auxerre and Lens in?
Auxerre (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Lens (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Lens's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. Flip it around — Lens's attack (1.16x) against Auxerre's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 37/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lens Win
19%
5.15
29%
3.46
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.35
1.51
Lens xG
5.15
19%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
4%
23.37
22%
4.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 14.4 | 10.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Lens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Lens expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.51 for Lens, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Lens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Auxerre come into this having played 75 games, going 27W 24D 24L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Lens sit at 1.91 PPG from 75 outings (41W 20D 14L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Lens carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Auxerre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Auxerre's home form reads 15W 12D 10L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Lens have taken 1.54 points per game from 37 outings (15W 12D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Auxerre are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Lens are on 1.69 scored and 1.01 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 75 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Current Season
Lens
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Lens in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 27W 24D 24L in their last 75 games (1.40 PPG), while Lens have gone 41W 20D 14L in their last 75 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Lens away?
Auxerre's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.54 PPG; Lens away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Lens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Lens in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Lens go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Auxerre won 0-4 on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Auxerre
1
Draws
4
Lens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Lens?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Lens have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Lens last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Lens 1-0 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Lens?
Lens have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Lens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 60%, Lens 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Auxerre) and 51% (Lens).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Lens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Lens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Auxerre's games and 62% of Lens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Auxerre vs Lens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Auxerre's recent games and 51% of Lens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Lens tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Lens in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lens cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lens beat Auxerre 1-3 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 38, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 0.84 xG and Lens 1.51 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lens outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.76 / defence 1.05 against Lens attack 1.16 / defence 0.78, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 19% | Draw 29% | Lens 52%, with Lens to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 48%, Lens 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Lens's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lens arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.