Estac Troyes vs Lille – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lille (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Estac Troyes face Lille.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Estac Troyes welcome Lille to Stade de l'Aube. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Estac Troyes — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stade de l'Aube this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Estac Troyes are significantly better at Stade de l'Aube than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lille have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Lille have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Lille's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Estac Troyes's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Estac Troyes, 3 for Lille and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2026, ended 0–2 with Lille winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Estac Troyes in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Lille in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 49% versus Lille 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 51% | Lille 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 0.90 xG and Lille 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.729 / defence 1.364 | Lille attack 0.985 / defence 0.754. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.318. Estac Troyes's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lille's defence strength of 0.754 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 9 Estac Troyes games / 43 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 18% | Draw 26% | Lille 57%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 5.56 | Draw 3.85 | Lille 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Lille (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lille at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Estac Troyes 50% | Lille 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 18% | Draw 26% | Lille 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Estac Troyes 0.90 / Lille 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.729 / def 1.364 | Lille attack 0.985 / def 0.754 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Lille (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Lille xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Lille kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Lille is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Stade de l'Aube.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Lille part of?
Estac Troyes vs Lille is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 18% chance of winning, Lille a 57% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Estac Troyes and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Lille?
Record (5 meetings): Estac Troyes 1W | Draws 1 | Lille 3W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Lille in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Lille (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Estac Troyes's attack rating (0.73) and Lille's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
18%
5.70
26%
3.90
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.67
1.77
Lille xG
5.70
18%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
17%
5.88
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
3%
33.52
23%
4.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 12.3 | 10.9 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.77 for Lille, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Lille?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estac Troyes come into this having played 43 games, going 22W 9D 12L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.84 PPG from 43 outings (23W 10D 10L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estac Troyes on 1.74 PPG, Lille on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Estac Troyes's home form reads 14W 2D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.86 points per game from 21 outings (12W 3D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.49 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Lille in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Lille in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 22W 9D 12L in their last 43 games (1.74 PPG), while Lille have gone 23W 10D 10L in their last 43 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Lille away?
Estac Troyes's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 2.10 PPG; Lille away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Lille in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estac Troyes and Lille runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Jan 2023, when Lille won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Lille specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
3
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Lille?
From 5 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 1, Lille have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Lille 2-0 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 52%, Lille 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Estac Troyes) and 43% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Lille in 43%; Lille in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 33% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 43% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Lille tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Lille in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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