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Shock result as Auxerre defy the odds to beat Toulouse 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Auxerre beat Toulouse 1-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.21 xG and Toulouse 1.31 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Toulouse landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.82 / defence 1.02 against Toulouse attack 1.05 / defence 0.85, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Auxerre 34% | Draw 27% | Toulouse 39%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Auxerre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 60%, Toulouse 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Auxerre's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Toulouse's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.18 PPG, Toulouse 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights