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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 5

Kick-off

Sun 21 Sep 2025

16:15

Venue

Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Toulouse Win

34%

Auxerre

2.94

27%

Draw

3.73

39%

Toulouse

2.56

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.7%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

10.5%

Away win

1 – 0

9.7%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.21

Auxerre xG

Total xG

2.52

1.31

Toulouse xG

34%
27%
39%
AuxerreDrawToulouse

2.94

34%

Home win

3.73

27%

Draw

2.56

39%

Away win

Goals Markets

72%

Over 1.5

1.39

28%

Under 1.5

3.57

46%

Over 2.5

2.17

54%

Under 2.5

1.85

25%

Over 3.5

4.00

75%

Under 3.5

1.33

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

51%

BTTS Yes

1.95

49%

BTTS No

2.05

Clean Sheet

27%

Auxerre

3.72

30%

Toulouse

3.35

Win to Nil

9%

Auxerre

10.93

12%

Toulouse

8.56

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.0 10.5 6.9 3.0 1.0 0.3
1 9.7 12.7 8.4 3.7 1.2 0.3
2 5.9 7.7 5.1 2.2 0.7 0.2
3 2.4 3.1 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1
4 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.208
λ Away (xG) 1.315
Total xG 2.523
League avg home goals 1.723
League avg away goals 1.230
Auxerre attack strength 0.824
Auxerre defence strength 1.021
Toulouse attack strength 1.047
Toulouse defence strength 0.851
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 38 / 38