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Shock result as Strasbourg defy the odds to beat Auxerre 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Strasbourg beat Auxerre 0-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.45 xG and Strasbourg 1.10 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Auxerre fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.98 / defence 0.80 against Strasbourg attack 1.00 / defence 0.92, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Auxerre 43% | Draw 30% | Strasbourg 27%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Strasbourg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 58%, Strasbourg 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Auxerre's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Strasbourg's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Strasbourg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Strasbourg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights