Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain – Predictions
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Auxerre's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Paris Saint Germain's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Paris Saint Germain's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
33%
3.07
24%
4.12
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Auxerre xG
Total xG
3.01
1.62
Paris Saint Germain xG
3.07
33%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
6%
15.58
11%
9.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.1 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.62 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.