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Prediction vindicated as Auxerre edge out Nice 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Auxerre beat Nice 2-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.29 xG and Nice 0.92 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.84 / defence 0.83 against Nice attack 0.85 / defence 1.01, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Auxerre 43% | Draw 32% | Nice 25%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 53%, Nice 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Auxerre's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Nice's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.06 PPG, Nice 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights