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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Auxerre cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Metz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Auxerre beat Metz 3-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.74 xG and Metz 0.97 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.62 / defence 0.86 against Metz attack 0.97 / defence 1.73, drawn from 48/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Auxerre 55% | Draw 24% | Metz 21%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 54%, Metz 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Auxerre's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Metz's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Metz arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Auxerre winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Metz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights