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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 15

Kick-off

Sun 7 Dec 2025

16:15

Venue

Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Auxerre Win

55%

Auxerre

1.80

24%

Draw

4.24

21%

Metz

4.77

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

11.5%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

11.2%

Draw

2 – 0

10.0%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.74

Auxerre xG

Total xG

2.71

0.97

Metz xG

55%
24%
21%
AuxerreDrawMetz

1.80

55%

Home win

4.24

24%

Draw

4.77

21%

Away win

Goals Markets

75%

Over 1.5

1.33

25%

Under 1.5

4.00

51%

Over 2.5

1.96

49%

Under 2.5

2.04

29%

Over 3.5

3.45

71%

Under 3.5

1.41

14%

Over 4.5

7.14

86%

Under 4.5

1.16

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

51%

BTTS Yes

1.95

49%

BTTS No

2.05

Clean Sheet

38%

Auxerre

2.65

18%

Metz

5.70

Win to Nil

21%

Auxerre

4.77

4%

Metz

27.20

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.6 6.4 3.1 1.0 0.2
1 11.5 11.2 5.5 1.8 0.4 0.1
2 10.0 9.8 4.8 1.5 0.4 0.1
3 5.8 5.7 2.8 0.9 0.2
4 2.5 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.1
5 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.741
λ Away (xG) 0.973
Total xG 2.714
League avg home goals 1.633
League avg away goals 1.155
Auxerre attack strength 0.618
Auxerre defence strength 0.865
Metz attack strength 0.975
Metz defence strength 1.726
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 48 / 14