Auxerre vs Marseille – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Marseille at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Marseille encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Auxerre host Marseille at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Auxerre — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Marseille have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Marseille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Marseille have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Marseille — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Auxerre, 4 for Marseille and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Marseille winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Auxerre trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Marseille trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 51% versus Marseille 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 51% | Marseille 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.29 xG and Marseille 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.854 / defence 0.978 | Marseille attack 1.164 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.318. Data: 43 Auxerre games / 43 Marseille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 31% | Draw 28% | Marseille 41%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Marseille 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Marseille as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Marseille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Auxerre 50% | Marseille 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Marseille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 31% | Draw 28% | Marseille 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Auxerre 1.29 / Marseille 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.854 / def 0.978 | Marseille attack 1.164 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Marseille (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Marseille xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Marseille kick off?
Auxerre vs Marseille is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
Where is Auxerre vs Marseille being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Marseille part of?
Auxerre vs Marseille is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Marseille?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 31% chance of winning, Marseille a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Marseille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Marseille?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Auxerre and Marseille will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Marseille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Marseille?
Record (6 meetings): Auxerre 2W | Draws 0 | Marseille 4W.
What form are Auxerre and Marseille in?
Auxerre (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Marseille (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (0.85) and Marseille's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Marseille's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Marseille Win
31%
3.18
28%
3.60
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.79
1.50
Marseille xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
7%
14.26
11%
8.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Marseille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Marseille expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.50 for Marseille, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Marseille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Auxerre have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 11W 11D 21L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Marseille's form line: 23W 5D 15L from 43 games, 1.72 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Marseille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Marseille are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Auxerre.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 1.38 PPG from 21 outings (8W 5D 8L).
On the road, Marseille have gone 9W 1D 11L from 21 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Marseille are on 1.93 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Marseille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Marseille in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 11W 11D 21L in their last 43 games (1.02 PPG), while Marseille have gone 23W 5D 15L in their last 43 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Marseille away?
Auxerre's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.38 PPG; Marseille away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Auxerre and Marseille runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Marseille go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2025, when Auxerre won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Auxerre's record when hosting Marseille specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Auxerre
0
Draws
4
Marseille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Marseille?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, Marseille have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Marseille last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Marseille 1-0 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Marseille?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Marseille see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 43%, Marseille 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Auxerre) and 48% (Marseille).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Auxerre have failed to score in 38% of games; Marseille in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Marseille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Marseille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Auxerre's recent matches and 33% of Marseille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Marseille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Auxerre's recent games and 48% of Marseille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.