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Prediction vindicated as Marseille edge out Auxerre 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Marseille beat Auxerre 0-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 0.98 xG and Marseille 1.36 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Auxerre fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.69 / defence 0.97 against Marseille attack 1.12 / defence 0.82, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Auxerre 27% | Draw 27% | Marseille 46%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 59%, Marseille 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Auxerre's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Marseille's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Marseille (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights