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Dominant Auxerre run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Marseille.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Auxerre beat Marseille 3-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.06 xG and Marseille 1.57 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Marseille landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.89 / defence 0.91 against Marseille attack 1.27 / defence 0.77, drawn from 22/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Auxerre 24% | Draw 28% | Marseille 48%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Auxerre win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 57%, Marseille 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Auxerre's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Marseille's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.68 PPG, Marseille 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Marseille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights