Auxerre 0-0 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lyon at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Lyon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lyon make the trip to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps to face Auxerre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Auxerre (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Lyon's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lyon away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lyon are 1.00 PPG clear of Auxerre in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (1.40 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Auxerre 1W, Lyon 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2025, ended 1–3 with Lyon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Lyon half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 50% versus Lyon 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 56% | Lyon 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.08 xG and Lyon 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.664 / defence 0.934 | Lyon attack 1.066 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.209. Auxerre's attack strength of 0.664 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Auxerre games / 46 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 33% | Draw 28% | Lyon 39%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Lyon 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lyon at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lyon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Auxerre 50% | Lyon 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 33% | Draw 28% | Lyon 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Auxerre 1.08 / Lyon 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.664 / def 0.934 | Lyon attack 1.066 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.666 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Lyon (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Lyon xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Lyon kick off?
Auxerre vs Lyon kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Lyon?
Auxerre 0 - 0 Lyon.
Where is Auxerre vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Lyon part of?
Auxerre vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 33% chance of winning, Lyon a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Auxerre and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Lyon?
Record (4 meetings): Auxerre 1W | Draws 1 | Lyon 2W.
What form are Auxerre and Lyon in?
Auxerre (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Lyon (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 0.66x the league average against Lyon's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lyon's attack (1.07x) against Auxerre's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
33%
3.05
28%
3.52
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.29
1.20
Lyon xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
10%
10.18
13%
7.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.20 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Auxerre come into this having played 46 games, going 13W 10D 23L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lyon sit at 1.67 PPG from 46 outings (23W 8D 15L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lyon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Auxerre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Auxerre's home form reads 9W 6D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Lyon have taken 1.30 points per game from 23 outings (8W 6D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Auxerre are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.80 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Lyon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Lyon in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 13W 10D 23L in their last 46 games (1.07 PPG), while Lyon have gone 23W 8D 15L in their last 46 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Lyon away?
Auxerre's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.43 PPG; Lyon away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Lyon in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lyon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Auxerre
2
Draws
3
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Lyon?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Lyon have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Lyon 3-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 44%, Lyon 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Auxerre) and 61% (Lyon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Lyon in 30%; Auxerre have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Lyon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Auxerre's recent matches and 61% of Lyon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Auxerre's matches and 61% of Lyon's.
Do Auxerre and Lyon tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Lyon in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Auxerre's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 13, as Auxerre and Lyon drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.08 xG and Lyon 1.20 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Auxerre fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Lyon landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.66 / defence 0.93 against Lyon attack 1.07 / defence 0.98, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 33% | Draw 28% | Lyon 39%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 56%, Lyon 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lyon's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.