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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lyon cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Auxerre.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lyon beat Auxerre 1-3 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.42 xG and Lyon 1.38 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lyon outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.88 / defence 0.80 against Lyon attack 1.21 / defence 1.09, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Auxerre 38% | Draw 25% | Lyon 37%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Lyon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 53%, Lyon 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Auxerre's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Lyon's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.73 PPG, Lyon 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lyon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights