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Prediction vindicated as Auxerre edge out Lorient 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Auxerre beat Lorient 1-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.69 xG and Lorient 1.12 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lorient landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.92 / defence 0.97 against Lorient attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Auxerre 51% | Draw 24% | Lorient 25%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 62%, Lorient 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Auxerre's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Lorient's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Lorient arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Auxerre winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Auxerre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Lorient (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights