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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 1

Kick-off

Sun 17 Aug 2025

16:15

Venue

Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Auxerre Win

51%

Auxerre

1.97

24%

Draw

4.16

25%

Lorient

3.97

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.4%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.2%

Home win

2 – 1

9.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.69

Auxerre xG

Total xG

2.81

1.12

Lorient xG

51%
24%
25%
AuxerreDrawLorient

1.97

51%

Home win

4.16

24%

Draw

3.97

25%

Away win

Goals Markets

77%

Over 1.5

1.30

23%

Under 1.5

4.35

53%

Over 2.5

1.89

47%

Under 2.5

2.13

31%

Over 3.5

3.23

69%

Under 3.5

1.45

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

55%

BTTS Yes

1.82

45%

BTTS No

2.22

Clean Sheet

33%

Auxerre

3.06

18%

Lorient

5.44

Win to Nil

17%

Auxerre

6.04

5%

Lorient

21.62

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.0 6.7 3.8 1.4 0.4 0.1
1 10.2 11.4 6.4 2.4 0.7 0.1
2 8.6 9.6 5.4 2.0 0.6 0.1
3 4.9 5.4 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.1
4 2.1 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.1
5 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.694
λ Away (xG) 1.120
Total xG 2.814
League avg home goals 1.594
League avg away goals 1.361
Auxerre attack strength 0.924
Auxerre defence strength 0.968
Lorient attack strength 0.850
Lorient defence strength 1.150
Data phase PrevSeason
Games used (H/A) 34 / 0