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Stalemate at Auxerre's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 17, as Auxerre and Lille drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.23 xG and Lille 1.15 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Auxerre fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Lille landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.01 / defence 0.88 against Lille attack 1.02 / defence 0.77, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Auxerre 37% | Draw 31% | Lille 33%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 58%, Lille 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Auxerre's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Lille's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.80 PPG, Lille 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Lille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights