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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Lens defy the odds to beat Auxerre 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lens beat Auxerre 1-2 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.05 xG and Lens 0.96 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lens outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.83 / defence 0.93 against Lens attack 0.89 / defence 0.79, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Auxerre 37% | Draw 31% | Lens 32%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Lens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 58%, Lens 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Auxerre's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Lens's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.20 PPG, Lens 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lens win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights