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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 7

Kick-off

Sat 4 Oct 2025

20:05

Venue

Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Auxerre Win

37%

Auxerre

2.70

31%

Draw

3.26

32%

Lens

3.09

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

14.0%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

13.5%

Draw

0 – 0

13.3%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.05

Auxerre xG

Total xG

2.02

0.96

Lens xG

37%
31%
32%
AuxerreDrawLens

2.70

37%

Home win

3.26

31%

Draw

3.09

32%

Away win

Goals Markets

60%

Over 1.5

1.67

40%

Under 1.5

2.50

33%

Over 2.5

3.03

67%

Under 2.5

1.49

15%

Over 3.5

6.67

85%

Under 3.5

1.18

5%

Over 4.5

20.00

95%

Under 4.5

1.05

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

40%

BTTS Yes

2.48

60%

BTTS No

1.68

Clean Sheet

38%

Auxerre

2.62

35%

Lens

2.87

Win to Nil

14%

Auxerre

7.08

11%

Lens

8.89

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 13.3 12.8 6.2 2.0 0.5 0.1
1 14.0 13.5 6.5 2.1 0.5 0.1
2 7.4 7.1 3.4 1.1 0.3 0.1
3 2.6 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.1
4 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1
5 0.1 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.055
λ Away (xG) 0.964
Total xG 2.019
League avg home goals 1.597
League avg away goals 1.171
Auxerre attack strength 0.832
Auxerre defence strength 0.927
Lens attack strength 0.888
Lens defence strength 0.794
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 40 / 40