Auxerre 1-1 Le Mans – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Le Mans encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Auxerre and Le Mans meet at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Current Form
Auxerre's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Auxerre's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
Le Mans (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Le Mans have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Le Mans have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Auxerre's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Le Mans's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Auxerre — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Le Mans — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 49% versus Le Mans 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 51% | Le Mans 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.81 xG and Le Mans 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.916 / defence 0.955 | Le Mans attack 0.901 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.405. Le Mans bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Auxerre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Auxerre games / 7 Le Mans games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 52% | Draw 23% | Le Mans 25%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Le Mans 4.00. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 40% | Le Mans 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Le Mans | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 52% | Draw 23% | Le Mans 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Auxerre 1.81 / Le Mans 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.916 / def 0.955 | Le Mans attack 0.901 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Le Mans xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Le Mans kick off?
Auxerre vs Le Mans kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Auxerre 1 - 1 Le Mans.
Where is Auxerre vs Le Mans being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Le Mans part of?
Auxerre vs Le Mans is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 52% chance of winning, Le Mans a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Auxerre and Le Mans will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Le Mans have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Le Mans?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Auxerre and Le Mans in?
Auxerre (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Le Mans (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Le Mans's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. Flip it around — Le Mans's attack (0.90x) against Auxerre's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 41/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
52%
1.94
23%
4.34
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Auxerre xG
Total xG
3.02
1.21
Le Mans xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
16%
6.14
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
4%
24.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.7 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Le Mans expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.21 for Le Mans, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Auxerre come into this having played 41 games, going 11W 10D 20L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Le Mans sit at 1.66 PPG from 41 outings (17W 17D 7L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Le Mans, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Le Mans carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Auxerre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Auxerre's home form reads 8W 4D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Le Mans have taken 1.50 points per game from 20 outings (7W 9D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Auxerre are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Le Mans are on 1.46 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Le Mans in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
Le Mans
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Le Mans in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 11W 10D 20L in their last 41 games (1.05 PPG), while Le Mans have gone 17W 17D 7L in their last 41 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Le Mans away?
Le Mans's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.40 PPG; Le Mans away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Le Mans been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Le Mans in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since October 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 25 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Auxerre
1
Draws
0
Le Mans
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Le Mans?
From 1 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 0, Le Mans have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Le Mans last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2026, when Auxerre 1-1 Le Mans.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Le Mans are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 40%, Le Mans 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Auxerre) and 50% (Le Mans).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Auxerre have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Le Mans away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Le Mans?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Auxerre's games and 75% of Le Mans's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Auxerre vs Le Mans usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Auxerre's recent games and 50% of Le Mans's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Le Mans tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Le Mans in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre and Le Mans share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre and Le Mans finished level at 1-1 at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.81 xG and Le Mans 1.21 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Auxerre fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.92 / defence 0.95 against Le Mans attack 0.90 / defence 1.26, drawn from 41/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 52% | Draw 23% | Le Mans 25%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 51%, Le Mans 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Le Mans's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Mans arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.