Auxerre vs Le Mans – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Auxerre at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Le Mans fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Auxerre and Le Mans meet at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Current Form
Auxerre's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Auxerre's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
Le Mans (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Le Mans have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Le Mans have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Auxerre — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Le Mans — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 48% versus Le Mans 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 50% | Le Mans 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.78 xG and Le Mans 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.907 / defence 0.983 | Le Mans attack 0.916 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.304. Le Mans bring a strong defensive rating of 1.264 — this is suppressing Auxerre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Auxerre games / 7 Le Mans games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 51% | Draw 24% | Le Mans 25%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Le Mans 4.00. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 40% | Le Mans 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Le Mans | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 51% | Draw 24% | Le Mans 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Auxerre 1.78 / Le Mans 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.907 / def 0.983 | Le Mans attack 0.916 / def 1.264 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Le Mans xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Le Mans kick off?
Auxerre vs Le Mans is scheduled to kick off at 16:15 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
Where is Auxerre vs Le Mans being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Le Mans part of?
Auxerre vs Le Mans is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 51% chance of winning, Le Mans a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Auxerre and Le Mans will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Le Mans have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Le Mans?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Auxerre and Le Mans in?
Auxerre (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Le Mans (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Le Mans's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. Flip it around — Le Mans's attack (0.92x) against Auxerre's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 40/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
51%
1.95
24%
4.18
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.96
1.18
Le Mans xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
17%
5.94
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
4%
23.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.9 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Le Mans expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.18 for Le Mans, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Auxerre come into this having played 40 games, going 10W 10D 20L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Le Mans sit at 1.68 PPG from 40 outings (17W 16D 7L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Le Mans, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Le Mans carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Auxerre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Auxerre's home form reads 7W 4D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Le Mans have taken 1.53 points per game from 19 outings (7W 8D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Auxerre are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Le Mans are on 1.42 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Le Mans in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
Le Mans
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Le Mans in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 10W 10D 20L in their last 40 games (1.00 PPG), while Le Mans have gone 17W 16D 7L in their last 40 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Le Mans away?
Le Mans's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.32 PPG; Le Mans away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Le Mans been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Le Mans in 38%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Le Mans are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 42%, Le Mans 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Auxerre) and 47% (Le Mans).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Auxerre have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Le Mans away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Le Mans?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Auxerre's games and 74% of Le Mans's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Auxerre vs Le Mans usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Auxerre's recent games and 47% of Le Mans's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Le Mans tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Le Mans in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.