🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Le Havre defy the odds to beat Auxerre 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Le Havre beat Auxerre 1-2 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.46 xG and Le Havre 1.44 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.85 / defence 0.95 against Le Havre attack 1.07 / defence 1.16, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Auxerre 38% | Draw 25% | Le Havre 37%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Le Havre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 55%, Le Havre 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Auxerre's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Le Havre's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Le Havre winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights