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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Auxerre cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Angers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Auxerre beat Angers 3-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.18 xG and Angers 0.74 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.73 / defence 0.80 against Angers attack 0.71 / defence 1.10, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Auxerre 44% | Draw 34% | Angers 21%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 52%, Angers 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Auxerre's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Angers's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.03 PPG, Angers 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm. Angers (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights