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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Angers defy the odds to beat Toulouse 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Angers beat Toulouse 1-0 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.10 xG and Toulouse 1.57 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Toulouse landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 1.01 / defence 1.13 against Toulouse attack 1.14 / defence 0.75, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Angers 27% | Draw 25% | Toulouse 48%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Angers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 32%, Toulouse 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Angers's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.

Toulouse's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Angers 1.15 PPG, Toulouse 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights