Angers 0-4 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Angers vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Angers welcome Toulouse to Stade Raymond Kopa. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 March 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Angers have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Raymond Kopa, Angers have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Toulouse — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Angers at 1.40 PPG versus Toulouse's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Angers, 2 for Toulouse and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Angers in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Toulouse in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 47% versus Toulouse 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 40% | Toulouse 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 0.98 xG and Toulouse 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.766 / defence 1.129 | Toulouse attack 1.057 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.373. Angers's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Angers games / 57 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 21% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 51%. Fair-value odds: Angers 4.76 | Draw 3.57 | Toulouse 1.96. Toulouse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Toulouse are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Angers 60% | Toulouse 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Raymond Kopa • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Mar 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 21% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Angers 0.98 / Toulouse 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.766 / def 1.129 | Toulouse attack 1.057 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Toulouse xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Toulouse kick off?
Angers vs Toulouse kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Toulouse?
Angers 0 - 4 Toulouse.
Where is Angers vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Toulouse part of?
Angers vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 21% chance of winning, Toulouse a 51% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Angers and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Toulouse?
Record (3 meetings): Angers 0W | Draws 1 | Toulouse 2W.
What form are Angers and Toulouse in?
Angers (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Toulouse (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Angers's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Toulouse's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
21%
4.77
28%
3.57
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Angers xG
Total xG
2.62
1.64
Toulouse xG
4.77
21%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
19%
5.15
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
4%
24.58
19%
5.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.9 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Angers and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Angers and 1.64 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Angers have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 26W 12D 19L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Toulouse's form line: 19W 16D 22L from 57 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Angers on 1.58 PPG, Toulouse on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Angers have posted 1.86 PPG from 28 outings (16W 4D 8L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 12W 6D 10L from 28 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Angers are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.21 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 26W 12D 19L in their last 57 games (1.58 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 19W 16D 22L in their last 57 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Toulouse away?
Angers's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.86 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Angers have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Mar 2025, when Toulouse won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Angers's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Angers
1
Draws
3
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Toulouse?
From 6 meetings on record, Angers have won 2, Toulouse have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Angers 1-0 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 46%, Toulouse 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Angers) and 54% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Toulouse in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Angers's recent matches and 46% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Angers's recent games and 54% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Toulouse tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Toulouse run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Angers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Angers 0-4 at Stade Raymond Kopa, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 0.98 xG and Toulouse 1.64 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Angers fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Toulouse outscored their 1.64 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.77 / defence 1.13 against Toulouse attack 1.06 / defence 0.80, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 21% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 51%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 40%, Toulouse 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Toulouse's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Angers 1.58 PPG, Toulouse 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.