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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Angers edge out Paris FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Angers beat Paris FC 1-0 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.60 xG and Paris FC 1.24 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Paris FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.87 / defence 1.07 against Paris FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Angers 46% | Draw 25% | Paris FC 30%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 32%, Paris FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Angers's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.

Paris FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Angers winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Angers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights