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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Marseille run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Angers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Marseille beat Angers 2-5 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.32 xG and Marseille 1.35 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Marseille outscored their 1.35 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 1.06 / defence 0.94 against Marseille attack 1.20 / defence 0.80, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Angers 36% | Draw 26% | Marseille 38%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 31%, Marseille 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Angers's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.

Marseille's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Angers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Marseille (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights