Angers vs Lyon – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Lyon run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Angers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lyon beat Angers 0-3 at Stade Raymond Kopa, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.26 xG and Lyon 2.17 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Angers fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Lyon outscored their 2.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.98 / defence 1.55 against Lyon attack 1.07 / defence 0.84, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Angers 21% | Draw 21% | Lyon 58%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 43%, Lyon 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Angers's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Lyon's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Angers 1.62 PPG, Lyon 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lyon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights