Angers vs Lyon – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Angers's attack at 0.98x the league average against Lyon's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 2.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
21%
4.73
21%
4.71
58%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Angers xG
Total xG
3.43
2.17
Lyon xG
4.73
21%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
1.74
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
11%
8.73
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
2%
41.33
16%
6.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Angers and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Angers and 2.17 for Lyon, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Lyon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.