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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Angers and Le Havre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Angers and Le Havre finished level at 1-1 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.19 xG and Le Havre 0.82 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.74 / defence 0.96 against Le Havre attack 0.71 / defence 1.10, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Angers 44% | Draw 32% | Le Havre 24%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 30%, Le Havre 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Angers's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.

Le Havre's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Angers 1.10 PPG, Le Havre 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights