Angers vs Auxerre – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Angers at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Angers vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Angers welcome Auxerre to Stade Raymond-Kopa. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Angers — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Angers at Stade Raymond-Kopa this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Angers) versus 1.00 (Auxerre). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Angers, 3 for Auxerre and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 3–1 with Angers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Angers trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Auxerre trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 41% versus Auxerre 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 32% | Auxerre 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.79 xG and Auxerre 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.732 / defence 1.228 | Auxerre attack 1.081 / defence 1.552. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.312. Angers's attack strength of 0.732 is below the league average — the 1.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.552 — this is suppressing Angers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Angers games / 44 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 39% | Draw 23% | Auxerre 37%. Fair-value odds: Angers 2.56 | Draw 4.35 | Auxerre 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Angers as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Angers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.53 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Angers 40% | Auxerre 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 39% | Draw 23% | Auxerre 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Angers 1.79 / Auxerre 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.732 / def 1.228 | Auxerre attack 1.081 / def 1.552 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Angers (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Auxerre xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Auxerre kick off?
Angers vs Auxerre is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
Where is Angers vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Auxerre part of?
Angers vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 39% chance of winning, Auxerre a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Angers and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Auxerre?
Record (9 meetings): Angers 3W | Draws 3 | Auxerre 3W.
What form are Angers and Auxerre in?
Angers (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Auxerre (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Angers's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
39%
2.54
23%
4.28
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Angers xG
Total xG
3.53
1.74
Auxerre xG
2.54
39%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
18%
5.70
17%
5.99
Win to Nil
7%
14.51
6%
16.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.1 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Angers and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Angers and 1.74 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Angers come into this having played 44 games, going 11W 11D 22L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.00 PPG from 44 outings (11W 11D 22L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Angers on 1.00 PPG, Auxerre on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Angers's home form reads 6W 6D 10L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 0.68 points per game from 22 outings (3W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Angers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Angers are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.07 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 11W 11D 22L in their last 44 games (1.00 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 11W 11D 22L in their last 44 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Auxerre away?
Angers's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.09 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Angers's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Angers
3
Draws
3
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Auxerre?
From 9 meetings on record, Angers have won 3, Auxerre have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Auxerre 1-3 Angers.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 41%, Auxerre 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Angers) and 54% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Angers have failed to score in 36% of games; Auxerre in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Angers's recent matches and 59% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Angers's recent games and 54% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Auxerre tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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