First Half Goals Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest first-half goal probability — Friday 4 September 2026
First half goals (over 0.5) lands when at least one goal goes in before the break. Our prediction model scales each fixture's full-match expected goals by the share of goals its league actually scores in the first half, measured from recent results. Only fixtures with a 75%+ chance of a first-half goal are shown.
The model shortlists 14 fixtures on Friday 4 September 2026. Aalesund vs Start sits top on 88% in the Eliteserien. The shortlist runs from 88% down to 75%, so the depth of the card matters as much as the headline pick.
Pro League supplies three of the top 10, which is worth noting if you are spreading selections across leagues.
Of the 14 fixtures on this list that have since finished, twelve landed the first half goals market — 86%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Eliteserien · Norway
88%
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
83%
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
83%
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
81%
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
81%
Ekstraklasa · Poland
80%
Eredivisie · Netherlands
80%
Pro League · United-Arab-Emirates
79%
2. Bundesliga · Germany
79%
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
79%
Ligue 1 · France
77%
Bundesliga · Germany
77%
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
76%
Premier League · England
75%
Showing top 14 fixtures by first-half goal probability (a 75% or higher chance of a first-half goal). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
Related markets
First Half Goals — common questions
What does the First Half Goals market mean?
First Half Goals settles on whether a match produces at least one goal before half-time. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate first half goals probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The first-half goal probability shown here is the probability of at least one goal before half-time — the full-match expected goals scaled by the share of goals each league actually produces in the first half, measured from its recent results. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for First Half Goals on Friday 4 September 2026?
14 fixtures met the criteria, led by Aalesund vs Start at 88% first-half goal probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 75% or higher chance of a first-half goal, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these first half goals predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.