Almere City FC 0-1 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Almere City FC (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Almere City FC face Jong Ajax.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Almere City FC and Jong Ajax meet at Yanmar Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Friday 4 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Almere City FC (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Almere City FC have posted 6W 1D 3L at Yanmar Stadion — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jong Ajax's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.80. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Jong Ajax have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Ajax have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Almere City FC. A 1.30 PPG lead over Jong Ajax (2.00 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jong Ajax in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Almere City FC lead 4W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2026, ended 2–0 with Almere City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Jong Ajax — key trading statistics (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 70% and Jong Ajax 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 74% | Jong Ajax 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 2.32 xG and Jong Ajax 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.146 / defence 0.909 | Jong Ajax attack 0.866 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 42 Almere City FC games / 43 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 59% | Draw 19% | Jong Ajax 21%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 1.69 | Draw 5.26 | Jong Ajax 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Almere City FC (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.32 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.66 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 60% | Jong Ajax 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 4 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 59% | Draw 19% | Jong Ajax 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 66% | xG Almere City FC 2.32 / Jong Ajax 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.146 / def 0.909 | Jong Ajax attack 0.866 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Jong Ajax xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 4 September 2026 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax?
Almere City FC 0 - 1 Jong Ajax.
Where is Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax part of?
Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 59% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 21% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Almere City FC and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Jong Ajax?
Record (6 meetings): Almere City FC 4W | Draws 0 | Jong Ajax 2W.
What form are Almere City FC and Jong Ajax in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Jong Ajax (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Almere City FC's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Jong Ajax's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.32. Flip it around — Jong Ajax's attack (0.87x) against Almere City FC's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
59%
1.68
19%
5.15
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.66
1.34
Jong Ajax xG
1.68
59%
Home win
5.15
19%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
10%
10.19
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
2%
48.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.34 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Almere City FC come into this having played 43 games, going 22W 6D 15L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Jong Ajax sit at 0.91 PPG from 43 outings (10W 9D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong Ajax, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Almere City FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Almere City FC's home form reads 12W 3D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Ajax have taken 0.80 points per game from 20 outings (4W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Almere City FC are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.42 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Jong Ajax in 67%.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Early Season
Jong Ajax
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 22W 6D 15L in their last 43 games (1.67 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 10W 9D 24L in their last 43 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Jong Ajax away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.95 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Almere City FC
0
Draws
3
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Jong Ajax?
From 7 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 4, Jong Ajax have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Almere City FC 0-1 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Jong Ajax?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Almere City FC, 70% for Jong Ajax — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Almere City FC and 65% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Almere City FC's games and 70% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Almere City FC's matches and 65% of Jong Ajax's.
Do Almere City FC and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong Ajax defy the odds to beat Almere City FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat Almere City FC 0-1 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 2.32 xG and Jong Ajax 1.34 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Almere City FC fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.91 against Jong Ajax attack 0.87 / defence 1.14, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 59% | Draw 19% | Jong Ajax 21%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Jong Ajax win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 74%, Jong Ajax 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Almere City FC arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with Jong Ajax winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.