Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
69%
1.46
22%
4.61
10%
10.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
VPS xG
Total xG
2.87
0.72
Mariehamn xG
VPSDrawMariehamn
1.46
69%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
10.22
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
12%
8.52
Win to Nil
33%
3.01
1%
87.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
λ Home (xG)
2.143
λ Away (xG)
0.725
Total xG
2.868
League avg home goals
1.491
League avg away goals
1.212
VPS attack strength
1.245
VPS defence strength
0.887
Mariehamn attack strength
0.674
Mariehamn defence strength
1.154
Data phase
CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A)
35 / 35