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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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VPS and Mariehamn share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VPS and Mariehamn finished level at 1-1 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.11 xG and Mariehamn 1.02 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 0.71 / defence 0.91 against Mariehamn attack 0.75 / defence 1.00, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VPS 37% | Draw 31% | Mariehamn 32%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 66%, Mariehamn 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VPS's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

Mariehamn's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VPS 1.27 PPG, Mariehamn 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights